Q1 2024 Returns By Asset Class

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last 12 months, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

Last quarter (1/1/24-3/28/24)
Last 12 months (4/1/23-3/28/24)
Since COVID Low (3/23/20-3/28/24)
Last 5 years (4/1/19-3/28/24)
Last 10 Years (4/1/14-3/28/24)

A few notes:

A steadying of inflation at a level higher than the Fed’s 2% target pushed back market expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024. This led to higher rates across the yield curve in Q1, putting some pressure on bonds. Stocks though, looked through higher interest rates and saw an economy that continues to chug along and defy 7% mortgage rates, higher than acceptable inflation, and a massive debt load. US Large Cap stocks (+10.4%) dominated once again, with seemingly relentless buying led by the big Artificial Intelligence (AI) names like Nvidia. US Small Caps weren’t far behind with a 7.5% gain. International stocks underperformed the US, but still saw good growth for the quarter with Developed countries up 5.4% and Emerging Markets up 1.7%. Commodities saw some strength as well, up 2.3%, and high-yield (junk) bonds were up 1.5% despite rising interest rates, due to their higher interest payments and spread compression vs. other, safer debt like Treasuries. Short-term Corporate Bonds were up 0.6%, fairing better than higher duration bonds as rates rose. Aggregate US Bonds lost 0.7%, Real Estate Investment Trusts were down 1.3% and Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds lost 2.4% for the quarter thanks to higher rates and a stronger dollar.

Q4 2023 Returns By Asset Class

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), full year 2023, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

Last Quarter (10/1/23-12/31/23)
Last 12 months (1/1/23-12/31/23)
Since Covid Low (3/23/20-12/31/23)
Last Five Years (1/1/19-12/31/23)
Last Ten Years (1/1/14-12/31/23)

A few notes:

The rollercoaster continued in Q4, with fantastic returns across the board (excl. commodities, but that’s probably a good thing and it’s another indicator of disinflation), after an up Q2 and a down Q3. Long-term interest rates pulled back as the Federal Reserve appears to have started their pivot toward rate cutting sometime in 2024. They left the door open for further hikes if inflation roars back, but after consecutive soft monthly inflation reports, the Fed is now forecasting three rate cuts (to 4.5-4.75% Fed Funds) by end of 2024. The benign inflation reports and the pivoting Fed sent stocks and bonds off to the races. REITs ended the quarter up more than 18% as the top performer (though that just puts them into the middle of the pack for 2023 as a whole. US Small Caps were up 13.4% with the seemingly ever-raging Large Caps up 11.6%. Foreign Developed (+11%), Emerging Market Bonds (+8.4%), Emerging Market Stocks (+7.1%), and High-Yield Bonds (+7.1%) round out the aggressive side of portfolios. The conservative side also had great returns with US Aggregate Bonds up 6.6% and US Short-Term Corporate Bonds up 4.1%. Commodities (-5.4%), as mentioned above, were the only sore spot for the quarter, with energy prices dropping as the disinflation narrative took hold. It remains to be seen if the Fed can engineer a soft landing for the economy with inflation falling back toward their 2% goal, but without a spike in unemployment and a recession. High interest rates take their toll on economic growth and they work with the “long and variable lags”, about which, the Fed always reminds us. Stocks seem to believe the soft landing is a lock. Bonds seem to believe disinflation is a lock and the Fed is going to go into easing mode. If they’re both correct, 2024 will likely bring more gains with it. If not, it’s going to get interesting, especially for the more expensive areas of the market like US Large Cap stocks.

Updated 2024 Tax Numbers

The IRS has released the key tax numbers that are updated annually for inflation, including tax brackets, phaseouts, standard deduction, and contribution limits.  Due to rounding limitations, not all numbers have changed from last year, but tax bracket thresholds have increased by just under 5.5% (higher than usual due to higher than usual inflation over the last year).  The notices containing this information are available on the IRS website here and here.  Some notable callouts for those who don’t want to read all the way through the update:

  • Max contributions to 401k, 403b, and 457 retirement accounts will increase by $500 to $23,000 (+$7,500 catch-up, no change from 2023, if you’re at least age 50).
  • Max contribution to a SIMPLE retirement account will increase by $500 to $16,000 (+$3,500 catch-up if you’re at least age 50).
  • Max total contribution to most employer retirement plans (employee + employer contributions) increases from $66,000 to $69,000 (+$7,500 catch-up, again for those 50 or over).
  • Max contribution to an IRA increases from $6,500 to $7,000 (+$1,000 catch-up if you’re at least age 50).
  • The phase out for being able to make a Roth IRA contribution is $240k (married) and $161k (single). Phase out begins at $220k (married) and $146k (single).
  • The standard deduction increases by $1500 to $29,200 (married) and by $750 to $14,600 (single) +$1,950 if you’re at least age 65 and single or $1,550 each if you’re married and at least 65.
  • The personal exemption remains $0 (the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act eliminated the personal exemption in favor of a higher standard deduction and child tax credits).
  • The child tax credit remains at pre-2021 rules at $2,000 per child, phasing out between $400-440k (married) and $200-220k (single).
  • The maximum contribution to a Health Savings Account (HSA) will increase to $8,300 (married) and $4,150 (single).
  • The annual gift tax exemption increases by $1,000 to $18,000 per giver per receiver.
  • The lifetime gift / estate tax exemption increases to $13,610,000.
  • Social Security benefits will rise 3.2% in 2024.  The wage base for Social Security taxes will rise to $168,600 in 2024 from $160,200.
  • Updated mileage rates for 2024 are due out later this year.

You can find all of the key tax numbers, updated upon release, on the PWA website, under Resources.

Q3 2023 Returns By Asset Class

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), year-to-date, last 12 months, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

Q3 2023 (7/1/23-9/30/23)
Year-To-Date (1/1/23-9/30/23)
Last 12 Months (10/1/22-9/30/23)
Since Covid Low (3/23/20-9/30/2023)
Last Five Years (10/1/18-9/30/23)
Last Ten Years (10/1/13-9/30/23)

A few notes:

  • After a stellar July, Q3 ended in disappointing fashion with almost all major asset classes finishing in the red as long-term interest rates hit their highest levels in 15 years. Inflation continues to soften, but the Fed has sustained their hawkish stance indicating the possibility of additional interest rate hikes, while pushing off future cuts well into 2024. The economy continues to chug along, for now, but higher rates are starting to take their toll. Debate rages on as to whether the majority of the hikes of the past 18 months have flowed through the economy or whether the long and variable lags leave the worst yet to come. Job growth has slowed and unemployment has begun to tick up slightly from historically low levels. Mortgage rates approaching 8% have locked up much of the housing market as it becomes tougher and tougher for homeowners to give up their 3% 30-year fixed in favor of another home with an 8% mortgage. Yet GDP growth is likely to be in the very solid 3-4% (annualized) range for Q3 as a whole when it is reported later this month.
  • Overall for Q3, from best to worst: Commodities (+5.1%) as energy prices spiked; Short-Term Corporate Bonds (+0.2%); High-Yield Bonds (-0.3%); Emerging Market Stocks (-2.8%); US Large Cap Stocks (-3.2%); US Aggregate Bonds (-3.2%); US Small Cap Stocks (-4.6%); Foreign Developed Stocks (-4.7%); Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds (-5.1%); Real Estate Investment Trusts (-8.6%).
  • While the S&P 500 is still up 12% year-to-date but the rest of the market has lagged with Small Caps only up 4% and Foreign stocks up about 5% overall. Short duration bonds have held their own, up about 2%, but the longer the duration, the worst the performance year-to-date as bond prices move in the opposite direction of rates, offsetting fairly high interest payments.
  • The longer-term charts continue to show the value of diversification and remaining invested for the long haul. Especially notable is the strong performance of almost all asset classes since the Covid low in March 2020. Note that that low occurred right around peak global fear and the beginning of the lockdowns.

Q2 2023 Returns By Asset Class

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), year-to-date, last 12 months, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

Q2 (4/1/23-6/30/23)
Year-To-Date (1/1/23-6/30/23)
Last 12 months (7/1/22-6/30/23)
Since Covid Low (3/23/20-6/30/23)
Last Five Years (7/1/18-6/30/23)
Last Ten Years (7/1/13-6/30/23)

A few notes:

  • With jobless claims rising for most of the quarter, softness in many economic indicators, core inflation still running stubbornly hot, and the Fed once again increasing its expectation for further rate hikes (despite a pause at their last meeting), one would think Q2 would have been a messy quarter for stocks. However, just the opposite happened, once again, causing pain for those that think they can time the stock market.
  • US Large Cap stocks (+8.7%) led the way in Q2, with Large Cap Tech outperforming the asset class as a whole. Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) was the buzz word of the quarter after phenomenal earnings from Nvidia (NASD: NVDA), a leader in the space and the continued rise of ChatGPT and other AI chatbots into everyday life. While the growth in that space overall should be phenomenal, valuations are a major concern with stocks like NVDA. US Small Caps (+5.3%) took second place in Q2, followed by International Developed (+3.2%) and Local Currency Emerging Market Bonds (+2.8%). REITs finished up 1.8%, Emerging Market Stocks up 1.2%, High-Yield Bonds up 0.8%, and Short-Term Corporate Bonds were essentially flat (+0.1%). On the downside this quarter were US Aggregate Bonds (-0.8%) as interest rates were once again higher and Commodities (-3.2%), perhaps giving an indication that inflation is coming down despite being stubbornly high for the last year.
  • Not shown in the charts above, but growth outperformed value again in Q2. Speculative areas of the market have been heating up in 2023 after getting clobbered in 2022.
  • While the S&P 500 is now up 15% year-to-date on a price basis, the equal weight S&P 500 is only up 6%. That’s an indication that 2023’s rally thus far has been led by a select group of stocks and while breadth was slightly better during parts of Q2, the average stock is up far less than the market cap weighted indexes are. Also of note this quarter, Apple’s (NASD: AAPL) market cap topped $3 Trillion (yes, with a “T”), the first stock to accomplish that feat.

Q1 2023 Returns By Asset Class

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last year, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

Last Quarter (1/1/23-3/31/23)
Last Year (4/1/22-3/31/23)
Since Covid Low (3/23/20-3/31/23)
Last Five Years (4/1/18-3/31/23)
Last Ten Years (4/1/13-3/31/23)

A few notes:

  • Q1 2023 felt like it was much longer than just one quarter. After starting with one of the strongest January month’s on record, the next month and half were a disaster for markets as inflation proved to be stubborn, leading to more hawkishness by the Fed. By the end of February, markets were pricing in near 6% short-term rates for the end of 2023. In early March, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed after a bank run and fears grew of a much bigger banking crisis. The anticipation of a pullbank in credit stoked recession fears, which were already present due to the pace of Fed rate hikes over the last year. Interest rates tumbled and by the third week in March, markets were pricing in substantial Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. In the last week of the quarter, fear of contagion in the banking sector relaxed a bit after the sale of a large portion of SVB’s assets by the FDIC and substantial investments in other regional banks by some of the stronger players in the space. Rates rebounded somewhat, but stayed in check as markets tried to balance inflation trends with growing concerns that further rate hikes would continue to pressure banks and the economy. With imminent additional bank failures seeming less likely, but interest rates still down considerably from the beginning of March, stocks rallied in the last week, making the quarter a positive one overall. Ending a quarter positive after the 2nd largest bank failure in US history, once again shows us that trying to predict the stock market’s short-term movement is a fruitless endeavor.
  • International Developed Stocks led the way for the quarter (+8%) with US Large Caps close behind (+7.5%). Small Caps (+3.7%) fared a bit worse as smaller companies in general need more access to credit than large ones and a banking crisis would increase borrowing costs while decreasing the availability of credit. Additionally, the regional banks, some of which became a concern after the SVB failure, make up a decent portion of the small cap indexes. Real Estate Investment Trusts gained 1.7% after being down as much as 6% in the quarter. Again credit fears and recession put pressure on REITs, with borrowing costs up, housing prices falling, and high vacancies in the corporate real estate space. On the bond side, local currency Emerging Market bonds let the way (+5.2%) as the dollar took a breather on lower rate expectations. High-yield (“junk”) US bonds were up 3.7%, with the Aggregate Bond Market Index up 3.2%, all due to lower rates, which move inversely with bond prices. Shorter-term bonds gained 1-2% in the quarter. Commodities lagged all other asset classes, down 6.3% in the quarter as future inflation expectations cooled and recession fears grew.
  • Not shown in the charts above, but growth outperformed value sharply in Q1. Lower future rate expectations seemed to flip a switch that turned everything that fell in 2022, back to growth in Q1 2023. It will take a lot more to undo the carnage in growth stocks, but Q1 was a good start. ARKK, which I’ve mentioned in previous quarters as being one of the most speculative areas of the market, was up 29% in Q1 2023, but is still down 67% from it’s high in Nov 2021.

FDIC, SIPC & Bank Runs

I’ve recently gotten a few questions from clients about FDIC insurance and keeping money safe at banks and other institutions, in light of the failures at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature.  I thought it’d be helpful to create a post on this topic that you can all refer to in the future.  I think everyone knows the FDIC magic number by now…  $250k  How that $250,000 applies to different types of assets, accounts, and institutions seems less understood. 

For cash accounts, FDIC insurance covers $250k per person, per account type (individual, joint, IRA, corporate, trust, LLC, etc.), per bank.  It is not $250k per account.  If you only have individual accounts at a bank, regardless of how many accounts over which that money is spread, then your coverage is simply $250k  If you have only have joint accounts at a bank, then each person on the title of the joint account has $250k of coverage, regardless of the number of accounts.  If you have individual and joint accounts at a bank, then you have $250k of coverage on your individual accounts (in aggregate), and separately, you and each of the other owners each have $250k of coverage on your joint accounts (in aggregate).  I won’t get into the nuances of trust accounts and corporate accounts, because our clients don’t generally have that much cash sitting in those types of accounts, but if you want to read the rules, straight from the proverbial horse’s mouth, the FDIC website does a great job of explaining how FDIC insurance applies to all different account types.  The limits apply per bank, so if you want a higher limit, you just need to spread your cash across more than one bank.  Again, FDIC insurance only covers cash in bank accounts.

FDIC insurance is important because with bank accounts, your deposits are the working capital of the bank, used to make loans or investments to generate a profit for the bank.  A bank run causes a bank failure if the bank’s assets are illiquid and/or have fallen in value too much to safely cover withdrawal requests from depositors.  That’s when regulators step in and close the bank, like they did with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.  They attempt to sell off bank assets while repaying depositors with those proceeds (oversimplified, but that’s the general process).  In those situations, the FDIC guarantees immediate availability of insured deposits to depositors either using the bank’s assets, the FDIC insurance fund, or other borrowing facilities set up by the Federal Reserve and Treasury.  They typically pay a dividend on uninsured deposits as well, from the leftover bank assets after accounting for all insured deposits.  As other assets are sold, additional dividends are paid in an attempt to make all depositors whole.  However, if there aren’t enough assets to do that (remember, the regulators step in when it looks like there aren’t going to be enough assets), then uninsured depositors lose their money.

Unlike with banks, in brokerage accounts, your securities (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etfs, derivatives) are completely segregated from the assets/liabilities of the broker.  Only fraud or other illegal actions by the broker could expose your securities, and regulation requires strict internal controls and audits to prevent that.  That’s why it’s important to use a US-based broker with an established history (or a foreign broker with similar characteristics and similar foreign protections if you are outside the US).  Most of our clients have their brokerage accounts at TD Ameritrade, which is owned by Schwab (and will soon be integrated into Schwab), and Schwab definitely fits that description.  There is no risk to brokerage accounts as a result of a bank run.  Schwab bank could completely fail and Schwab as a business could file for bankruptcy, and while it would cause a headache and potential service disruptions, none of that would expose you to loss of your securities.  In practice, even if Schwab bank were to fail, it’s just one division of the company, and a likely suitor would come along and purchase the non-bank divisions, possibly facilitated by the US government.  Additionally, each brokerage customer is protected with up to $500k of SIPC insurance, which guarantees the securities that are held (in a segregated manner) with the broker.  Finally, most brokers purchase additional insurance protection for customers.  For example, TD Ameritrade provides each customer with $149.5M of protection for securities, above and beyond the SIPC insurance, subject to aggregate policy limits. SIPC’s only currently open case is that of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (a classic example of why you want to have your assets in accounts in your own name, in the custody of a brokerage that is not also your investment advisor!).

Cash in a brokerage account is a hybrid between cash at a bank and securities in a brokerage because brokers “sweep” cash into a bank account to earn interest.  However, unless you have more than $250k, that cash is FDIC insured in those bank accounts, so no risk there either.  Most brokers use multiple sweep accounts at different banks, so you really have $250k times the number of banks in the program as an insured cash limit.  We don’t hold anywhere near that amount of cash in client accounts unless a deposit is made or a withdrawal is being facilitated in excess of the insured amount.  Even then, the cash is only held for a very short amount of time.

To summarize:

  • You should keep bank account cash below $250k per person per account type at any one bank if you want to stay within FDIC insurance limits.  Split your assets between banks, if necessary, or add them to brokerage accounts and invest them in assets like US government t-bills if they are assets upon which you don’t want to take any risk.
  • FDIC insurance is what protects your assets in the case of a bank run.
  • Cash held in a brokerage account that is swept to a bank account is treated just like cash held at the bank account and is subject to the same FDIC limits.
  • Brokerage assets (other than cash) are not exposed in a bank run because, unlike bank deposits, they are segregated from the assets of the broker and are not subject to the broker’s creditors.
  • Brokerage assets can be at risk in the case of fraud or other illegal activities by the broker (as in the case of Bernie Madoff’s fraudulent broker which conveniently “held” the assets of those who hired him as their investment advisor).  That’s always the case and that’s why brokers are highly regulated, required to have internal controls in place, and are audited regularly.  In the case any securities are lost, SIPC and additional insurance provided by the broker guarantee the return of the securities, up to insurance limits.

2023 State Tax Changes

The Tax Foundation released a fantastic list of notable state tax changes for 2023. It was so good, I wanted to post it here, rather than just tweeting it out, since not everyone uses Twitter. Here’s the link to the site, which includes personal income tax rate changes, corporate tax changes, sales and use tax changes, and a host of miscellaneous new and changed provisions.

SECURE 2.0 Act

In late December, as part of budget appropriations for 2023, Congress passed and President Biden signed into law, the SECURE 2.0 Act.  For those interested in the full text, see Division T of HR 2617.  It can be found on pages 2046-2404 of the 4,155 page document.  SECURE 2.0 is an add-on to the original Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (“SECURE”) Act of 2019, most of which went into effect in 2020.  SECURE 2.0 is filled with a ton of tax, retirement, and other provisions, many of which are extremely complex and will require additional guidance from the IRS on implementation.  Below are the provisions I noted that are most likely to impact some PWA clients, now, or in the future (I tried to sort these in order of most interest to least for the average client, so the more important ones are listed first.  This makes the list NOT follow the sections of the bill at all).

  • Rollover of unused 529 plans to Roth IRAs – SECURE 2.0 allows for penalty-free rollovers from a 529 plan to a Roth IRA for the beneficiary of the 529 under certain circumstances.  The lifetime limit is $35k per beneficiary, but annually, can’t be more than what the beneficiary could contribute to a Roth IRA (that may or may not include the need to have earned income… we’ll need more guidance on that).  The 529 account must have been open for at least 15 years to make such a transfer and the transferred amount must have been in the account for more than 5 years (i.e. you can’t contribute and then immediately convert…  this is really intended for leftover education savings after school is complete).  Interestingly, there are no income limits to making these rollover contributions, so we have another “backdoor Roth” type opportunity.
  • RMD begin date – Required Minimum Distributions from pre-tax retirement plans must start in the year that a taxpayer turns 72 (up from 70.5 due to SECURE 1.0).  SECURE 2.0 extends this to age 73 starting in 2023 and to 75 starting in 2033.
  • Missed RMD penalty reduced – from 50% to 25%, or 10% if the correction occurs in a timely manner (generally, within 2 years).  Starts in 2023.
  • Additional 401k catch-up contribution – for those ages 60-63, the catch-up contribution amount is increased to $10k (from the current $7500) or 50% more than the regular catch-up contribution, whichever is greater, starting in 2025.
  • Catch-up contributions must be Roth – Currently, catch-up contributions to a 401k/403b can be pre-tax or Roth as decided by the plan participant.  Starting in 2024, all catch-up contributions must be Roth, unless the participant’s previous year compensation is less than $145k (indexed for inflation).
  • Matching contributions can be Roth – Currently all 401k/403b employer matching is done on a pre-tax basis to a Traditional 401k.  Starting in 2023, plans can allow participants to direct whether they want the match to be contributed to the Traditional or Roth 401k/403b.  If Roth, the match will be considered taxable income in the year the contribution is made.
  • Student loan payments will count for 401k matching purposes – when employers offer a 401k match, if the employee doesn’t contribute to the plan, they don’t get the match.  SECURE 2.0 changes that by allowing employers to count student loan payments as contributions to 401ks for the purpose of calculating how much matching an employee will get.  Starts in 2024.  Another seemingly difficult one from an administration perspective.  I’m sure there will be more guidance on how the employee proves the loan payment to the employer and by what deadline to receive the match.
  • SIMPLE and SEP plans can be Roth – starting in 2023, both SIMPLEs and SEPs can allow Roth contributions (would need a SIMPLE Roth IRA and SEP Roth IRA, respectively.
  • Use of 401k funds in Federally Declared Disasters – up to $22k can be withdrawn penalty-free (but not tax-free) from a 401k for a federally declared disaster.  The amount is taxable over 3 years, to allow the impact to be spread rather than potentially bumping the taxpayer up in bracket in the year of the disaster.  The amount can also be re-contributed within three years and then no tax is due.  In addition, loans from 401ks get a boost if you live in a Federally declared disaster area.  Instead of the max loan being 50% of the vested balance or $50k (whichever is less), it becomes 100% of the vested balance or $100k (whichever is less).  Effective for disasters occurring after Jan 25, 2021.
  • IRA Catch-Up – the extra amount that you can contribute to an IRA if you’re over age 50 will now be indexed to inflation (was previously a flat $1k).  Starts in 2024.
  • Qualifying longevity annuity contracts (QLACs) can be larger – the are annuities that start payment after age 72.  Previously limited to 25% of account value or $125k max, up to $200k can now be purchased and is exempted from Required Minimum Distributions (RMD).  Start is in 2023.
  • Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) easing – SECURE 2.0 indexes the $100k annual QCD limit to inflation, and allows a one-time $50k QCD to a charitable gift annuity, charitable remainder unitrust, or charitable remainder annuity trust.  Starts in 2023.  Note, QCDs can still be made by those over 70.5 years of age, despite the RMD begin date being pushed back from the year you turn 70.5 to 72 (by SECURE 1.0) and now 73 or 75 (by SECURE 2.0).
  • Roth 401k RMDs eliminated – While there has never been a Required Minimum Distribution for Roth IRAs, Roth 401ks did have an RMD.  SECURE 2.0 eliminates this starting in 2024.
  • Retirement plan distributions for Long-Term Care insurance – Up to $2500 can be distributed per year penalty-free (but not tax-free) to pay the premiums for LTCI.  Starts in 2026.
  • Penalty-free “emergency” distributions from 401ks – Can withdraw up to $1k per year as an emergency expense without penalty.  Tax is due unless the amount is repaid within 3 years.  No additional emergency withdrawals are allowed until the amount is paid back or the 3 years has passed.  Starts in 2024.
  • Emergency Savings Accounts – SECURE 2.0 allows (but does not require) employers to offer Emergency Savings Accounts to non-highly compensated employees, linked to their retirement plan.  These would function like Roth 401k accounts (after-tax) with a max of up to $2500/yr in contributions, would qualify for matching, and would allow up to 4 penalty-free withdrawals per  year.  At termination, the remaining amount can be rolled to a Roth 401k or Roth IRA>
  • 401k auto-enrollment – if you start a new job, you may find that more employers are auto-enrolling employees in their 401k, unless they opt out.  SECURE 2.0 mandates this as part of new plan setups, with initial contributions ranging from 3-10% and auto-increase annually up to 10-15%.  Starts in 2024.
  • SIMPLE plan changes – contributions limits will increase by 10% starting in 2024.  Additionally, employers contribute more to employee SIMPLE accounts (up to the lower of 10% of compensation or $5k).
  • Nannie SEPs – Domestic employees can participate in Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) plans.  Starts in 2023.
  • Starter 401k plans – Employers without a 401k (or 403b) can sponsor a starter 401k (or safe-harbor 403b) that doesn’t require any onerous non-discrimination testing.  Employees would be auto-enrolled and can contribute up to the maximum amount that would allowed to an IRA for the given year.  Starts in 2024.
  • Saver’s Credit becomes Saver’s Match – the current Saver’s credit provides a tax credit of 50% of the first $2k contributed to a retirement plan for low income individuals / families.  SECURE 2.0 changes this to a Saver’s Match which is deposited into the saver’s retirement plan account (seems like a much more difficult plan from an administration standpoint, but perhaps it will provide a bit better incentive to contribute as the Saver’s Credit was not a popular program.  Starts in 2027.

Q4 2022 Returns By Asset Class

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last year, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

Last Quarter (10/1/22-12/31/22)
Last Year (1/1/22-12/31/22)
Since Covid Low (3/23/20-12/31/20)
Last Five Years (1/1/18-12/31/22)
Last Ten Years (1/1/13-12/31/22)

A few notes:

  • Q4 was a strong quarter (even stronger if we could erase December) that ended a terrible year for everything other than commodities. Developed foreign markets led the way (+17%) as the US dollar finally cooled. Emerging market stocks, emerging market bonds, US small caps, and US large caps all had solid performance of +7-9%. High yield (junk) bonds returned +5% with real estate just below at +4.3%. Commodities ticked slightly higher (+2.4%) and after a miserable year, bonds crawled ahead as interest rates finally took a breather. Short-term corporate bonds were up 2.2% with the aggregate bond index up 1.6%.
  • While many will remember 2022 as an excess of destruction in financial markets, it really was a destruction of excess. The areas that fared worst were those that saw substantial gains in previous years, leading to rich valuations by virtually every measure. I’ve mentioned Large Cap Tech multiple times in previous “market update” posts as an area of concern in an otherwise fairly priced market. 2022 brought it back to reality with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 30% and individual well-known names falling much further. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) closed the year down nearly 68%. The once-loved Tesla finished down 65%. Meme stocks like Gamestop (-50%) and AMC (-76%) also came back toward reality. And crypto, perhaps the most obvious representative of speculation, was also crushed with Bitcoin down 65%, Ethereum down 68%, and many of the smaller coins/tokens down substantially more. On the contrary, US Large Cap Value (perhaps the least representative of excess) held up quite well, down only 2.1% on the year. Destruction of excess is often a requirement of the start of a new bull market. Without a crystal ball, we can’t know when that will begin (or if it already has), but it would be very difficult to have one without cutting the excesses out of the market overall.
  • 2022 was the worst year for the aggregate bond index in history, closing down 13%, after being down as much as 17% earlier in Q4. Bond prices move in the opposite direction from interest rates and with the Fed raising rates at a pace never before seen (started the year near 0% and ended near 4.5%!), in hopes of bringing inflation back toward their 2% target, bond prices tumbled. The shorter the term on the bond or bond fund, the less impact the increase in rates has though, so short-term bonds outperformed longer-term bonds. This should intuitively make sense… the shorter the time to maturity, the less time you have to wait to redeem your low-interest paying bonds and reinvest in new higher interest bonds. The longer the time to maturity, the longer you’re stuck with the low interest rates, so if you want to sell those bonds, no one will pay anywhere near your principal amount (i.e. the price falls). The good news is that we’ve gone from a world of negative and zero interest rates everywhere, to one where we can now get 3.4% in a bank account, 4.75% on a 1-year treasury note, over 5% on many high-quality corporate bonds.
  • Commodities were the one bright spot in 2022, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index returning over 17%. Commodities still have a long way to go to catch up to other financial assets over the past 10 years though as you can see from the charts above. It feels like oil, gas, etc. are all high now, but remember that 10 years ago, oil was $120 vs. today’s ~$80.