This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last year, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Q1 2023 felt like it was much longer than just one quarter. After starting with one of the strongest January month’s on record, the next month and half were a disaster for markets as inflation proved to be stubborn, leading to more hawkishness by the Fed. By the end of February, markets were pricing in near 6% short-term rates for the end of 2023. In early March, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed after a bank run and fears grew of a much bigger banking crisis. The anticipation of a pullbank in credit stoked recession fears, which were already present due to the pace of Fed rate hikes over the last year. Interest rates tumbled and by the third week in March, markets were pricing in substantial Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. In the last week of the quarter, fear of contagion in the banking sector relaxed a bit after the sale of a large portion of SVB’s assets by the FDIC and substantial investments in other regional banks by some of the stronger players in the space. Rates rebounded somewhat, but stayed in check as markets tried to balance inflation trends with growing concerns that further rate hikes would continue to pressure banks and the economy. With imminent additional bank failures seeming less likely, but interest rates still down considerably from the beginning of March, stocks rallied in the last week, making the quarter a positive one overall. Ending a quarter positive after the 2nd largest bank failure in US history, once again shows us that trying to predict the stock market’s short-term movement is a fruitless endeavor.
• International Developed Stocks led the way for the quarter (+8%) with US Large Caps close behind (+7.5%). Small Caps (+3.7%) fared a bit worse as smaller companies in general need more access to credit than large ones and a banking crisis would increase borrowing costs while decreasing the availability of credit. Additionally, the regional banks, some of which became a concern after the SVB failure, make up a decent portion of the small cap indexes. Real Estate Investment Trusts gained 1.7% after being down as much as 6% in the quarter. Again credit fears and recession put pressure on REITs, with borrowing costs up, housing prices falling, and high vacancies in the corporate real estate space. On the bond side, local currency Emerging Market bonds let the way (+5.2%) as the dollar took a breather on lower rate expectations. High-yield (“junk”) US bonds were up 3.7%, with the Aggregate Bond Market Index up 3.2%, all due to lower rates, which move inversely with bond prices. Shorter-term bonds gained 1-2% in the quarter. Commodities lagged all other asset classes, down 6.3% in the quarter as future inflation expectations cooled and recession fears grew.
• Not shown in the charts above, but growth outperformed value sharply in Q1. Lower future rate expectations seemed to flip a switch that turned everything that fell in 2022, back to growth in Q1 2023. It will take a lot more to undo the carnage in growth stocks, but Q1 was a good start. ARKK, which I’ve mentioned in previous quarters as being one of the most speculative areas of the market, was up 29% in Q1 2023, but is still down 67% from it’s high in Nov 2021.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last year, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Q4 was a strong quarter (even stronger if we could erase December) that ended a terrible year for everything other than commodities. Developed foreign markets led the way (+17%) as the US dollar finally cooled. Emerging market stocks, emerging market bonds, US small caps, and US large caps all had solid performance of +7-9%. High yield (junk) bonds returned +5% with real estate just below at +4.3%. Commodities ticked slightly higher (+2.4%) and after a miserable year, bonds crawled ahead as interest rates finally took a breather. Short-term corporate bonds were up 2.2% with the aggregate bond index up 1.6%.
• While many will remember 2022 as an excess of destruction in financial markets, it really was a destruction of excess. The areas that fared worst were those that saw substantial gains in previous years, leading to rich valuations by virtually every measure. I’ve mentioned Large Cap Tech multiple times in previous “market update” posts as an area of concern in an otherwise fairly priced market. 2022 brought it back to reality with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 30% and individual well-known names falling much further. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) closed the year down nearly 68%. The once-loved Tesla finished down 65%. Meme stocks like Gamestop (-50%) and AMC (-76%) also came back toward reality. And crypto, perhaps the most obvious representative of speculation, was also crushed with Bitcoin down 65%, Ethereum down 68%, and many of the smaller coins/tokens down substantially more. On the contrary, US Large Cap Value (perhaps the least representative of excess) held up quite well, down only 2.1% on the year. Destruction of excess is often a requirement of the start of a new bull market. Without a crystal ball, we can’t know when that will begin (or if it already has), but it would be very difficult to have one without cutting the excesses out of the market overall.
• 2022 was the worst year for the aggregate bond index in history, closing down 13%, after being down as much as 17% earlier in Q4. Bond prices move in the opposite direction from interest rates and with the Fed raising rates at a pace never before seen (started the year near 0% and ended near 4.5%!), in hopes of bringing inflation back toward their 2% target, bond prices tumbled. The shorter the term on the bond or bond fund, the less impact the increase in rates has though, so short-term bonds outperformed longer-term bonds. This should intuitively make sense… the shorter the time to maturity, the less time you have to wait to redeem your low-interest paying bonds and reinvest in new higher interest bonds. The longer the time to maturity, the longer you’re stuck with the low interest rates, so if you want to sell those bonds, no one will pay anywhere near your principal amount (i.e. the price falls). The good news is that we’ve gone from a world of negative and zero interest rates everywhere, to one where we can now get 3.4% in a bank account, 4.75% on a 1-year treasury note, over 5% on many high-quality corporate bonds.
• Commodities were the one bright spot in 2022, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index returning over 17%. Commodities still have a long way to go to catch up to other financial assets over the past 10 years though as you can see from the charts above. It feels like oil, gas, etc. are all high now, but remember that 10 years ago, oil was $120 vs. today’s ~$80.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), year-to-date, last 12 months, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• After spending the first half of Q3 building up significant gains, all asset classes struggled in the second half, closing down for the quarter, and, with the exception of Commodities, down for the year. International Stocks, both Emerging and Developed markets, as well as US Real Estate performed worst (-11% to -12%) for the quarter. “Best” performers for Q3 were High-Yield (junk) bonds, Short-Term Corporate Bonds, and US Small Caps (all down ~2%). US Large Caps (S&P 500), Commodities, Emerging Market Bonds, and US Aggregate Bonds finished the quarter in the middle of the pack, down 5-6% each.
• The turning point for the market was the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole in August. There, chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a tough stance against inflation, indicating the Fed was poised to continue to raise rates considerably and willing to accept the “pain” (likely recession) that would result, in order to tame inflation.
• As a result of the Fed’s action, bonds had another tough quarter too in Q3. Long-term treasuries (TLT, not shown above) were down another 11.6% in the quarter, now down ~31% YTD as rates spiked, and prices (which are inversely correlated with rates) sank. We generally keep the bond side of client portfolios much shorter in duration, and include inflation-protected bonds, both of which faired much better again. Short-term inflation protected treasuries were only down ~2.5% for the quarter., with short-term investment-grade credit down less than 2%.
• On the bright side of the bond rout, higher rates means higher yields going forward. Short-term treasuries now yield ~4%, with junk bonds over 8%. Holding funds with bonds that mature soon means that those holdings are soon to be replaced by new bonds that pay today’s higher rates. Short-term losses are made up for quickly by higher yields going forward.
• Interestingly, the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), which I’ve mentioned here in previous quarters due to it’s awful performance, did not make a new low for 2022 in Q3, despite the market as a whole doing just that. It’s still down 60% year-to-date though as the values of high-growth stocks have been destroyed by high interest rates.
• Markets in general are still sharply up from the 2020 Covid lows and over the last 5 and 10 years. US Large and Small Caps have dominated global performance over the last decade.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), year-to-date, last 12 months, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Q2 was an awful quarter for stocks across the board. Emerging markets performed best out of the major asset classes (-9%), with foreign developed (-14%), US REITs (-15%), US Large Cap (-16%), and US Small Cap (-17%) lagging behind. Continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to battle continued increases in inflation have pressured asset values and sparked fears of a sharp economic slowdown as a result. Whether we’re technically in a recession now (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) or not, it’s clear that the Fed is determined to slow inflation at all costs right now, both by raising rates and via Quantitative Tightening (QT), or selling assets from their balance sheet.
• Bonds had another tough quarter too in Q2. Long-term treasuries (TLT, not shown above) were down 13% in the quarter, now down 22% YTD as rates spiked, and prices (which are inversely correlated with rates) sank. We generally keep the bond side of client portfolios much shorter in duration, and include inflation-protected bonds, both of which faired much better again. Short-term inflation protected treasuries were only down 1.2% for the quarter., with short-term investment-grade credit down 1%.
• Even commodities turned in negative performance for Q2. After being up as much as 11% for the quarter in early June, a sharp downturn across the board, and especially in energy delivered a -6% quarter.
• The worst performing areas of the market in Q2 were the same as in Q1. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), down almost 30% in Q1, tumbled another 40% in Q2, and is now down almost 75% from its 2021 peak. On the flip side, US value stocks are still holding up relatively well, down only 9% YTD vs. the S&P 500’s -20%.
• Markets in general are still sharply up from the 2020 Covid lows and over the last 5 and 10 years. US Large and Small Caps have dominated global performance over the last decade.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last year, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Q1 was the first down quarter for US stocks since the start of covid. All asset classes shown above except commodities, ended the quarter down between 3.8% (Short-term corporate bonds) and -6.5% (Emerging market stocks). Causes of the poor performance include the Russia/Ukraine war, spiking energy prices, high overall inflation, the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates over the next 2 years, and a re-emergence of covid in China, likely causing more supply chain disruptions. The bright side in all of that is the performance of commodities, which returned (in aggregate), over 28% for Q1. After being down and out since the financial crisis and pummeled again by covid, commodities have come roaring back over the last two years the top performer over that period.
• Bonds had their worst quarter since the 1980s. Long-term treasuries (TLT, not shown above) were down 11% in the quarter as rates spiked, and prices (which are inversely correlated with rates) sank. We generally keep the bond side of client portfolios much shorter in duration, and include inflation-protected bonds, both of which faired much better. Short-term inflation protected treasuries were only down 0.4% for the quarter.
• The worst performing areas of the market in Q1 were the high-flying US growth stocks with the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), down almost 30% for the quarter. On the flip side, US value stocks actually had a positive 1% return for the quarter. Higher interest rates are generally viewed as a headwind for growth stocks since much of their future earnings is far off in future years. The higher interest rates are, the higher the opportunity cost of investing in distant earnings rather than current earnings (more value-oriented). Growth has outperformed value for much of the last 15 years, which is a trend that may finally be reversing.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last year, last five years, last ten years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Q4 was a very strong quarter (with a mid-quarter dip) for US Large Cap (+11%) and US Real Estate (+15%), but other asset classes fared substantially worse. US Small Caps still did well (+4%), but underperformed. Foreign stocks did worse with Developed Markets (+3%) and Emerging Markets (-0%) finishing down slightly on the quarter. US Bonds were flat to down 1% with Emerging Market Bonds down 3%. Commodities finished down ~2% after rallying strongly for the past two quarters.
• For 2021 as a whole, the only truly poor performing asset class was Emerging Market Bonds (-10%) as the U.S. Dollar rallied and fears of a liquidity crunch in emerging markets dominated as the Fed begins to pull back on stimulus and even start raising rates in 2022. US significantly outperformed Foreign stocks as well. Real Estate (+41%) and Commodities (+29%) won the year as interest rates remained low as inflation spiked.
• US Large Cap (S&P 500) has dominated over one, five, and ten years. The largest US stocks have performed best and gotten even larger, year after year. The top 2 companies in the S&P 500 (Apple and Microsoft), now make up 11.5% of the index. The top 10 make up 27.4% of the index. Diversified portfolios that include the other asset classes have underperformed as a result. Eventually though, this tide will reverse and smaller stocks will outperform larger ones. Foreign stocks, especially emerging markets, are about as cheap as they’ve ever been relative to the U.S. How long the dominance of a handful of US stocks can continue is anyone’s guess. But, the odds seem to favor a diversified portfolio outperforming the S&P 500 over the next few years.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), year-to-date, last twelve months, last five years, last 10 years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• A solid first two months of the quarter hit an ugly September, which left Q3 mixed to slightly down overall. Commodities led the way (+8%) for the second straight quarter as supply chain issues led to shortages in many areas of the economy. The Fed has softened its opinion on the transitory nature of inflation, and are indicating a chance for costs rising higher than their 2% per year target for some time. They’ve indicated that if the employment picture continues to improve, they’re likely to start tapering their bond purchases (quantitative easing) in the coming months, with rate hikes down the road in late 2022 / early 2023.
• Rounding out the performance numbers by asset class: US Bonds, US Large Cap Stocks, US Real Estate, and High-Yield Bonds all returned between 0-1% in Q3. On the losing side were Foreign Developed Stocks (-1.5%), US Smalls Caps (-2.5%), Emerging Market Debt (-3.5%), and Emerging Market Stocks (-7%). The stability of bonds made more conservative portfolios outperform in Q3. But, as you can see in the 5-year chart and the “since covid low” chart, overall performance across the financial markets has been superb.
• While commodities have continued to roar back over the past 18 months, the 5 and 10-year charts show just how far they’ve lagged behind other asset classes. Commodities generally track inflation over the long-term, and they really suffered after the financial crisis, the oil glut, and the early part of covid. Now, higher inflation has been pushing commodities higher. Whether that continues or not depends on whether supply constraints ease and on how quickly global demand returns following the peak of the Delta variant of covid (and whatever variant of concern comes next).

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), year-to-date, last twelve months, last five years, last 10 years, and since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Another solid quarter in Q2 for all assets classes. Commodities led the way (+15%) as the world got a strong whip of inflation. Whether that’s transitory as the Fed expects or not, remains to be seen. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) (+12%) were close behind. US Large Cap (+8%), Foreign Developed (+6%), US Small Caps (+5%) and Emerging Markets (+5%) also had great quarters. Emerging Market Bonds (+4%) were the winners in fixed income, with High Yield (+2%), US Aggregate Bonds (+2%), and Short-Term Corporate Bonds (+1%) close behind. Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (not shown on the charts) were +3% in the quarter, again on the back of higher consumer prices.
• While commodities have roared back over the last year, the 5 and 10-year charts show just how far they’ve lagged behind other asset classes. Commodities generally track inflation over the long-term, and they really suffered after the financial crisis, the oil glut, and the early part of covid.
• All assets classes have shown positive returns since 3/23/20 (the Covid low), amidst the worst pandemic in a century. US Small Caps are now up 130%+ over that period, dominating the other asset classes. Just about the time that the world was assuming the worst and fearing the most as lockdowns started in the US, the bottom was in for the financial markets. Yet another, among numerous historical examples, of why it doesn’t make sense to sell in the midst of a crisis, no matter how bad it looks.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), last twelve months, last five years, and last 10 years. There is no year-to-date this quarter since Q1 and year-to-date are the same. I’m also retiring the chart that shows returns since the financial crisis lows of 3/9/2009 and have replaced it with a new chart that shows returns since the covid low (3/23/2020).  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Another great quarter for equities in Q1, following the spectacular Q4. US Small Caps led the way (+10.3%), followed by REITs (+8.8%), Commodities (+8%) led by energy, US Large Caps (+6.4%), Foreign Developed (+4.5%), and Emerging Markets (+4%).
• It was a tough quarter for Bonds as interest rates rose, especially on longer-dated treasuries. The Federal Reserve indicated that they are likely to hold overnight rates at 0% through at least 2022, but longer term treasuries reacted to the increased likelihood of inflation with the US 10-yr Treasury rising to 1.74%, up from 0.93%, just a quarter ago. High-yield (“junk”) Bonds eked out a positive return (+0.6%), with US Short-Term Corporates losing 0.6%, and US Aggregate Bonds losing 3.6%. Local Currency Emerging Market Bonds fared worst at -7.1%.
• Over the last 12 months, all assets classes have shown positive returns, amidst the worst pandemic in a century. US Small Caps are now up 120% from their Covid low on 3/23/2020.

This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), as well as year-to-date, last twelve months, last five years, and since the financial crisis lows of 3/9/2009.  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• While US Large Cap Stocks (S&P 500) had a fantastic quarter in Q4 (+12%), Foreign Stocks, both Developed and Emerging, actually outperformed (+16-17%), and US Small Cap Stocks completely dominated (+27%), finally playing a bit of catch up and topping their all-time high set back in 2018. All major asset classes were positive for the quarter. This was a quarter where many who try to market-time suggested caution was needed given a second wave of covid, a US election that could have dire consequences, gridlock and lack of stimulus from Congress, and a climax to BrExit. Trying to time the stock market and believing you’re smarter than all other investors, in aggregate, is a fool’s game. Q4 2020 is just another example.
• Along those same lines, just look at 2020 performance as a whole. The worst pandemic in a century and stocks end the year strongly positive almost across the board (only REITs were negative as a major asset class).
• On the 5-year chart, we can see that even commodities have now eked out positive returns, after being down almost 25% in March of this year due to covid. It’s been a rough decade for commodities, especially energy with supply glut after supply glut, followed by a pandemic-induced bout of demand destruction. Perhaps zero interest rates are starting a new uptrend here. There’s till a lot of oil and gas out there though, so it would be difficult for a rise in energy prices to not be met with more supply coming online fairly quickly.