Election & Markets

11pm eastern on election night and it’s looking like we have ourselves another BrExit moment coming for the financial markets, with US futures down as much as 4.5% a few minutes ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that double by morning. I’m going to keep this short so as to stay out of the political side of the story. In my opinion, a Trump win is a threat to global trade (just like BrExit was) and that is a threat to global growth. Even if much of it wasn’t rhetoric to gain votes in the states that have bled manufacturing jobs over the past two decades, ironically, a Republican controlled Congress is probably a block to much of that type of movement. Just as the reaction to BrExit was to sell first and think later, it appears the same will prevail here if Trump does win (now a 90% chance in better markets). Fear is not a winning proposition. I’m confident the world won’t end from a Trump presidency either. More details to follow in the coming days regarding what to expect from a tax and economic point of view.

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