For the last few quarters, I’ve posted returns by asset class (by representative ETF), as well as year-to-date, last twelve months, and last five years. While there is still no predictive power in this data, I updated those charts as of the end of Q1 2018 for those of you that are interested (see below). Note that there is no year-to-date chart in this quarter since year-to-date and last quarter are the same.
A few callouts from the data:
- Most asset classes finished Q1 down between 0.5% and 1.5%. This is a far cry from “Markets In Turmoil”, as CNBC likes to call it whenever stocks move down for a few days in a row, but it is still the first down quarter in a long time. The standouts on both sides of the flat line were Emerging Market Bonds (+~4%), Emerging Market Stocks (+~2.5%) and US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) (-~8%).
- All asset classes other than REITs remain positive over the last 12 months, led by Emerging Markets and Foreign Developed Markets. As I’ve pointed out quite a few times in the last few years (and as can be seen on the 5-year chart), foreign stocks a have a lot of catching up to do vs. US stocks from a performance perspective. Of course there’s no way to know whether they will catch up with the US or if there’s good reason for their underperformance. At least over the last year, a bit of catch-up has occurred.
- After smooth sailing in 2017, volatility returned for Q1 2018. You’ll notice a lot more ups and downs on the 12-month chart over the last 3 months. What feels like a bit of a roller coaster over the last few months is actually much more normal from a historical perspective than 2017 was.
- Bonds (short and medium term) are still up slightly over the last 12 months despite another interest rate hike by the Fed. The Fed Funds rate target is now 1.50-1.75%. Futures markets are pricing in another two Fed rate hikes in 2018, with about a 30% chance of three more hikes.