This post contains the usual returns by asset class for this past quarter (by representative ETF), as well as year-to-date, last twelve months, last five years, and since the financial crisis lows of 3/9/2009.  While there is still no predictive power in this data, I’ll continue to post this quarterly for those of you that are interested. 

A few notes:

• Q3 was another strong quarter with positive returns across major asset classes. Commodities (+10.5%) led the way with strong gains in metals, followed by Emerging Market Stocks (+10%), and US Large Cap (+9%). Foreign Developed and US Small Cap stocks were each up 6% with High-Yield (“Junk”) Bonds up 4%. Emerging Market Bonds, Aggregate US Bonds, Short-Term US Credit Bonds, and Real Estate Investment Trusts followed with returns in the 0.5-2% range.
• US Large Cap Stocks are the only major equity asset class that has fully recovered from the covid sell-off and is now positive on the year. US bonds (both aggregate and short-term credit) are also positive, no doubt helped by the various Federal Reserve bond-buying programs. The Fed continues to buy both corporate bond ETFs and a diversified set of individual company bonds subject to their self-defined constraints.
• The 5-year chart shows major outperformance by US Large Caps as the largest companies have had the best returns in recent years. Large Cap Growth (not shown) has done even better as the tech sector of US Large Cap (think Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, etc) has done even better. Commodities have lagged badly, as energy has been repeatedly crush, first by a glut of supply with US shale entering the market en masse, and then by a demand shock due to covid.